Science Fiction - Pandemic

Pandemic - a Science Fiction Story by Karen

First - a One-Hit Wonder from the 1960s

In the year 2525

If man is still alive

If woman can survive

They may find-

In the year 9595

I'm kinda wonderin', if man is gonna be alive

He's taken everything this old Earth can give

And he ain't put back nothing

Whoa-oh-oh

Zager and Evans - 1969

The song talked about man destroying themself and our planet.  

So, today, let me write some fiction:

*****

In the year 2050, a virus quickly developed.  It was airborne and within a few days, the prevailing winds had taken it from Africa to the Middle East and then to the huge populations of India and China.  Air travel helped get it to Europe, Australia, North and South America. It was so strong that one airborne bacteria was all that was needed to infect a person.  Within a week of the infection, that person started hemorrhaging and died within two weeks.

At the first sign of a new virus, the various scientific agencies locked down their labs.  No person was allowed in or out. Air cleaning systems were set on high for these labs as people outside died.  The death total was so huge, that bodies were left where they fell. Any attempt to bury a body would just stir up more germs floating around.  Within two weeks, some 90% of the population had died, and most of the remaining population was sick.

Within a month, the only living beings were in highly protected labs.  The CDC (Center for Disease Control - now a global entity with headquarters in Shanghai China) could claim about 2,000 people still alive.  Satellite feeds to the CDC showed the devastation that covered the earth. Airplanes crashed as pilots died at the controls, but the seats on the plane already held the dead.  The satellite feeds showed as lights went out around the world as power plants stopped working since there were no people to run them. Even though hydroelectric plants and wind turbines were turning out electricity, there was little usage.  Lights and television sets that had been left on were still on, refrigerators were still running with food that was slowing deteriorating.  

Even within the CDC complex with air cleaning systems was threatened, as food supplies dwindled.  Fortunately, water was not contaminated. Robotic systems could bring food to the huge CDC complex where it was moved into airlocks - not unlike those on space stations.  But, the global supply of food was not being replaced other than by robotic farms.  

The virus affected all animals who breathed air.  Fish still existed. Cattle, deer, bear, even turtles, and alligators died.  

The CDC had developed three potential solutions - but with the outside population gone had difficult decisions.  They were like Noah and his family on the ark - any human population in the future would be descendants of CDC workers. 

Testing devices that could be monitored at the CDC headquarters determined that the virus still raged.  After three months, the virus was less as there were no living beings to propagate the virus, but the decaying bodies still were incubators for the virus until the decay became complete.  It wasn’t known if the virus could be dormant, and if so, how long. If the CDC waited five years before opening its doors could the remaining scientists survive?  

“Volunteers” from the CDC were separated into rooms and after receiving samples of one of the three solutions, were observed as these volunteers were exposed to the virus.  One of the solutions failed quickly and those volunteers died quickly as did their fellow humans. The others were subjected to various blood and lung tests to see if the virus would infect them.  

After five years, one of the solutions was considered safe and totally viable.  One-by-one, the remaining CDC staff were inoculated with the solution and started to live on the outside.  

The world was different.  There was no money - no shops - no manufacturing - no buses, trains or airplanes.  A ‘dark age’ settled on the earth. As power plants failed, the CDC used their computers to find and solve the problem to keep the electricity running.  

The 1800 remnants were differentiated into various occupation groups.  Eventually, the earth’s population grew to one million. Mankind had somehow survived, but the cost had been great.

*****

I have no idea how the coronavirus will turn out.  Will it be as deadly on a worldwide scale as the “Black Plaque” of the middle ages?  

On the other hand, I’m 72 and will die someday.  I was anticipating living to 100, but hey if I live to 73 that is the way it is!!!

*****

Taking a quote from two days ago:

“If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you.” Calvin Coolidge - 30th President of the United States.

*****

It will be interesting!!!

Hugs!!!

Karen

AI to the Coronavirus Solution (maybe)

AI (artificial intelligence) to the rescue!!!

https://www.morningbrew.com/emerging-tech/stories/2020/03/09/coronavirus-rd-highlights-ai-data-applications-biotech 

Okay, we have a world-wide health crisis on our hands.  Yes, I am washing my hands more frequently, yes, I am trying to stay away from sick people.  I’m doing my part, what about the rest of the world?

Well - technology is part of the solution:

From the linked article we have this:

“In April 2003, about five months after SARS began spreading, an international team of scientists fully sequenced the virus's genome. This January, just two weeks after a mystery virus was reported to the WHO, researchers had sequenced the novel coronavirus. Days later, they developed the first diagnostic tests.”

“Technology advances have sped up the timeline with which scientists can treat an outbreak. As they race toward a coronavirus treatment, they're using mail-order DNA, synthetic viruses, and the kind of emerging tech you're used to reading about here. 

*****

So, researchers have sequenced the coronavirus - and are working on diagnostic tests - MUCH quicker than the SARS virus of 2003 (two weeks this time around as compared to five months during SARS).

That’s great - we can diagnose it quicker.  But, are there solutions to this virus?

Again, technology to the forefront:

“Insilico Medicine, a Hong Kong-based biotech company, has fired up an "assembly line of AI methods," CEO Alex Zhavoronkov told the WSJ. In just four days, Insilico's AI models developed 100,000 unique molecules that could potentially treat coronavirus. Insilico is now producing seven solutions, hoping to begin tests next month.

“Vir Biotechnology and Atomwise are other companies deploying machine learning to analyze chemical data sets and drugs' potential performance. “

What?  Artificial Intelligence had 100,000 unique molecules moving through tests to seven potential solutions.  Sounds great (maybe).

BUT

From the article

“Even if scientists found a vaccine today, it would take months to go through the necessary human trials and produce at scale. But data analysis tools and AI can expedite R&D timelines and introduce new treatment options. 

*****

Human trials can take time (much more time that computers can do the analysis of possible solutions.  Now, tests on humans are essential.

Just because the computer says “this will work”, doesn’t mean it will work.  I’m guessing the analysis of DNA and the human genome can work in our (that is, humanities) favor.  But, humans can be pretty complex.

Thinking back to my childhood, we had a new “wonder” drug - Thalidomide!!

“Thalidomide was a widely used drug in the late 1950s and early 1960s for the treatment of nausea in pregnant women. It became apparent in the 1960s that thalidomide treatment resulted in severe birth defects in thousands of children.”

Wow -  it was to solve the problem of nausea in pregnant women but caused severe birth defects!!  (This might be like the solution to hiccups - hold your head underwater for 30 minutes - your hiccups will be gone - (and your life will be as well)!!

New medications can cause side effects that artificial intelligence can hint at - but until you test, you really don’t know how effective it might be and what side effects might occur.  Some side effects only occur on parts of the population with some specific generic conditions.

But, on the good side, researchers - AND artificial intelligence is working on a solution!!!

Let’s hope so!!

Hugs!!

Karen

(Tomorrow - some Science Fiction!!!) 

Finishing Karen's View on History (maybe)

Karen’s View on History - from 1970 to Present

Some thoughts and quotes:
“If you see ten troubles coming down the road, you can be sure that nine will run into the ditch before they reach you.” Calvin Coolidge - 30th President of the United States.

“There are battles that we need to be in, and battles that we need to avoid.”

“90% of what you learn in college is irrelevant and only 10% is relevant.  The trouble is, we don’t know what the 10% really is”.

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

"When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be twenty-one, I was astonished at how much he had learned in seven years." Mark Twain.

“Too soon old, too late smart”.

And, the last one (at least for now) “Hindsight is 20/20”.

We all make mistakes.  As a human, I have made (and still make) plenty of mistakes.  If I really have learned from my mistakes, I would be the smartest person in the world!!!  Humans ‘enjoy’ the comfort that they will eventually grow old and die. Countries really don’t grow old.  The United States is now 244 years old. As a country, we have made many mistakes - and as a country, we have done some very admirable things.  We are vulnerable (both as single humans and as a country). We have had some great moments and some great flops. We have had some great leaders and some not-so-great leaders.

As I have looked at the past week at history through my eyes, I realize that even though it all, I am still an idealist - I still think Americans can (and will) do the right thing.  But, I have been disillusioned as well. Vietnam is one that is major in my brain. Stopping the spread of an ideology that enslaves people (while claiming protection for all) was a noble goal.  Stopping Fascism was also a noble goal - and (largely) was achieved. Freedom for all mankind - under God is good. If the Judeo-Christian view that man is made in the image of God is true - then we need to learn to love and accept and forgive.   

Vietnam - Nixon - Agnew - Clinton - Iraq War - Cold War - (let alone Panama, the whole Middle-East, Bosnia, Cuba, Bay of Pigs, Grenada) and so much more were troubles that came down the road - and at times we (the country of the United States) tried to stop problems that weren’t important enough to stop - let them run into the ditch as Coolidge suggested.  The War on Poverty, the War on Drugs, the Civil Rights of people were good programs. Of course (my personal bias) is that once we institutionalize a problem, the bureaucracy somehow takes some of the good out of the effort. Government grows bigger as we implement great programs to help people - but that needs administration and oversight to dole out the dollars and support.

We want and need heroes, statesmen made from marble - but we get politicians made of straw and clay with imperfections.  (Tongue-in-cheek - what America needs is me - since I don’t have any imperfections!!!!)

Some suggest that we are “going to hell in a handbasket”.  While I have suggested that Presidential candidates seem to have an overabundance of ego, they are willing to go into that arena.  “Fools rush in, where angels fear to tread”). I couldn’t be President. I’m not sure I could be a College Dean again (LMG did a better job anyway!!!).  

1 Timothy 2:1-2 says “I urge, then, first of all, that petitions, prayers, intercession, and thanksgiving be made for all people— for kings and all those in authority, that we may live peaceful and quiet lives in all godliness and holiness.”  (For Presidents, Senators, Congressman, Governors, Mayors, ALL those in authority!!) 

Then Jesus said to them, "Give back to Caesar what is Caesar's and to God what is God's." And they were amazed at him. (Mark 11:17); 

Romans 13:1 "Let every person be in subjection to the governing authorities.

“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men, even when they exercise influence and not authority: still, more when you superadd the tendency or the certainty of corruption by authority.” John Acton, British Baron

The 1 Timothy 2:1-2 verse speaks to me - have I prayed for those authorities - today or any day?  (Maybe not!!)

I will return to history again - but I will move to a different topic tomorrow!!!

Hugs!!

Karen

(For history, in the 1950s there was a book The Ugly American about some of our (USA) blunders abroad.  I even think back to the Opium Wars and how our good friends from Great Britain tried to enslave the Chinese people on opium to balance trade.  (hmmm - make that might be a good idea now? NO NO NO). We have enslaved our own people - by race and color. We harass those whose brains say that they have a different sexual or gender orientation.  Too much history, too many mistakes!! Oh well, life goes on!!)

Karen's View on History - 1968 plus

Karen’s View of History

Yes, I’m back looking at History.  

First a slight replay.

I commented as I looked at the early 60s about the shock of President Kennedy’s assassination.  Don McLean might have a different idea as the sang “The Day the Music Died”, but looking at the 1960s, a bit of death in America died on November 22, 1963, with his death.  More on my idealistic views died as the United States sent forces to Vietnam.

Vietnam became a huge divide in The United States. As the country moved to the 1968 election, Vietnam became an issue.  There was a huge pressure on Lyndon Johnson - who proclaimed on March 31, 1968, national address announcing that he would not seek a second full term, saying "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

Vietnam had cut deeply so deeply that the sitting President, a successful President - who had campaigned a needed Civil Rights act, and even set up for a fantastic moon shot - announced that “enough was enough”.  

The 1968 election was the first time I could vote.  I turned 21 (which was the voting age at that point) on August 24, 1968.  I was a senior in college, I was in love, I was a big man on campus - in the student senate, an officer in the biggest fraternity, a residence hall assistant, in the concert band and more.  (I even placed at a couple of chess tournaments).  

The political world was in turmoil.  The Republicans nominated Richard Nixon (with Spiro Agnew as the Vice President candidate); the Democrats fought very publically.  Eugene McCarthy from Minnesota (where I was going to college) was the major anti-war candidate of the Democratic Party.  Robert Kennedy was also a forerunning in the Democratic Primaries - but was assassinated on June 5, 1968.  Hubert Humprey (also from Minnesota) eventually became the Democratic presidential candidate.

And, if that wasn’t enough, George Wallace from Alabama ran as a third party candidate promoting racial segregation.  

Dr. Martin Luther King was assassinated on April 4, 1968.  

My country - our country was becoming the “Wild West”.  John Kennedy - assassinated in 1963; Martin Luther King - assassinated in 1968; Robert Kennedy - assassinated in 1968; protests against the Vietnam war in my communities (mostly colleges); infighting politically between anti-war candidates - and even white/black segregation.  

The Democratic Convention was in Chicago in the summer of 1968.  Famous Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley promised peace for the convention - but that didn’t happen.  Protests with the Chicago Seven disrupted the convention

From Wikipedia about the Chicago Seven:

“Abbie Hoffman, Jerry Rubin, David Dellinger, Tom Hayden, Rennie Davis, John Froines, and Lee Weiner—charged by the federal government with conspiracy, inciting to riot, and other charges related to anti-Vietnam War and counterculture protests that took place in Chicago, Illinois” during the Democratic Convention.  

Could America survive?  Was this going to be a Civil War - but not North and South this time, but liberals versus conservatives?  It was also within families as parents who grew up during the Depression and World War II were confronted with their children who took different political views.  

There were other factors - the Voting Rights Act of 1965 was now in effect - and the Black population now was enabled with the right to vote.  

Nixon won the fractured election with 43% of the popular vote and Humphrey with 42% of the popular votes (but Nixon garnering 301 electoral votes to Humphrey's 191 electoral votes.) 

As I opined the other day, America is still split from the 1960s.  Indirectly Vietnam has etched its way into the American psyche.  

The disillusionment with “Politics as Normal” is still being debated today.  

Just a brief look at some of the political outcomes since that time.  

The 1968 winning President/Vice President candidates of Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew were disgraced.  Agnew eventually pleaded “no contest” to charges of tax evasion relating to kickbacks from contractors in Baltimore.  Nixon seemingly authorized a break-in at a Watergate office relating to 1972 election.  Nixon was impeached by the House of Representatives (but acquitted by the Senate) and resigned - leading eventually to Gerald Ford being the old President who was not elected as either President or Vice President to hold that office.  

In the 1990s, a Republican House impeached Bill Clinton (largely do to the morality of sex with an intern); in 2019, a Democratic House impeached Donald Trump (also largely on moral grounds) - both of which were not upheld by the United States Senate. 

There is still unrest in many American’s souls from the “politics as normal” process.  We talk ‘ethics’ - but don’t live it.  

And, again, we have a Presidential Election year (2020) with ethics considerations by the Republican incumbent and candidate (proclaiming “Make America Great Again”).  On the Democratic side we (at this date) two leading white male candidates in the upper 70s.  

I am reminded a song for this:  

“Let there be peace on earth

And let it begin with me

Let There Be Peace on Earth

The peace that was meant to be

With God as our Father

Brothers all are we

Let me walk with my brother

In perfect harmony.

Let peace begin with me

Let this be the moment now.”

The other thought that comes to mind is:

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,

Courage to change the things I can,

And wisdom to know the difference.

As I grow into my old age, I am proclaiming Love is the Answer; love one another; love your enemies, love your neighbor as yourself.  

As a nation that proclaims “In God we Trust” on our coins and “God bless America” - it seems like we just can’t agree what that means.  (But, the idealist in me, still refuses to roll over and die yet!!)

Hugs!!

Karen

The Fourth Economic Factor - Entrepreneurship

The last Economic Factor - Entrepreneurship

In the past three days, I have looked at Economic Factors  Land, Labor, Capital and today, Entrepreneurship.

Economic productivity is built on these four factors.  If you have land, you can grow crops or have livestock; you can also build and sell houses or rent buildings to businesses. Labor does the work - working the land, working in the businesses, being productive.  The use of money - capital - for investments, to make our work more productive.

Now Entrepreneurship.

“Entrepreneurial economics is the study of the entrepreneur and entrepreneurship within the economy. The accumulation of factors of production per se does not explain economic development. They are necessary factors of production, but they are not sufficient for economic growth.”

I’ll call this ‘management’ as well as ‘entrepreneurship’.  So what that you have land, and you have people willing to work, and you even have money - but without a business plan, without leaderships, with management at the top - there will be nothing to be produced.

There are plenty of management theories out there.  We have Business Schools, have Management majors, and graduate Master of Business Administration (MBA) degrees.  Technically, my Ph.D. is in Business (I don’t know - does that qualify me to talk about management? But, let’s modify that a little - it was a focus on Management Information Systems with a minor in Management Science).  

I like Henry Mintzberg’s ten roles of managers:

He wrote that managers have three roles:  Interpersonal, Informational, and Decisions.

Interpersonal Role:

Figurehead - the head of a business (from small to giant) becomes the image of the enterprise.  If you will, the President of the United States represents the whole country.

Leader - the manager is the leader, the person with vision, the person who says “yea” or “nay” to plans

Liaison - the manager interfaces with the internal staff and the external aspect.  

Informational Roles:

Recipient - The manager gets the information

Disseminator - the manager sends out the information

Spokesperson - the manager speaks for the business

Decision Roles:

Entrepreneur - looks for ways to improve the business, for ideas and vision

Disturbance Handler - finds solutions inside and outside the business

Resource Allocator - every enterprise has limited resources (mostly capital) and the entrepreneur/manager has to allocate those resources around

Negotiator - the manager has to find consensus and work for solutions

Obviously, we can’t cover all of these aspects here.

But, these are aspects of a good manager

Lead by example.

Do your job.

Be transparent with your team.

Be constructive while criticizing.

Be motivating and inspiring.

Allow employees to participate in management.

Manage your time.

Don't overstress yourself.

And, as I am prone to do, a few Bible verses about management:

“A wise man will hear and increase learning, And a man of understanding will attain wise counsel.”  Proverbs 1:5

“Where there is no counsel, the people fall; But in the multitude of counselors there is safety.”  Proverbs 11:14

“For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil 1 Timothy 6:10 

*****

So, a quick four days into economics - and the four economic forces:  land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship.

We are in a society, we are in various enterprises - our employment, even our churches, synagogues, social groups, and more.  Understanding economics can be valuable to our places in society.

So, what lessons am I learning?  Maybe that we are all working together.

Hugs!!

Karen

(Tomorrow, I’m going back to history - and maybe an insight into disillusionment!!!) 

Economics #3 - Capital

Economic Factors #3 Capital

According to economists, there are four factors to economic production: 

-1 Land - agriculture, building, living - for most businesses/enterprises you need land

-2 Labor - people, workers

-3 Capital - money (today)

-4 Entrepreneurship - leadership, insight, vision

Today we are looking at money - that is capital!!

We have the adage “the poor get poor and the rich get rich” - but frequently it is from the wise use of money.

Let’s say you want to grow organic food.  You’ll need land (do you have the money to buy the land?).  You’ll need labor - to plant, grow and harvest the crops (do you have the money to pay the laborers?).  And, you will need leadership (that is entrepreneurship) to direct and manage the process (do you have money to pay the leaders?  Are you going to work for free?)

Capital

“Capital has been defined as that part of a person’s wealth, other than land, which yields an income or which aids in the production of further wealth.”

“Obviously, if wealth is left unused or is hoarded, it cannot be considered capital.”

“Capital serves as an instrument of production. Anything which is used in production is capital.”

For most Americans (or most people), we start out in part-time jobs as high school students.  I delivered newspapers, but in most cities that job doesn’t exist anymore with fewer papers and most papers as morning papers.  The Cedar Rapids Gazette (at that time) was an evening paper, forty-five cents a week - and not only did I have to deliver the paper, I had to go door to door to collect the money.  Plus, Sunday papers were (a) heavy; and (b) delivered in the morning before church.  

My first ‘real’ job (as if delivering papers was not a real job) was as a busboy at the Hotel Roosevelt during my senior year in high school.  It was interesting.  Aside - today it seems like the servers’ bus (clean) your tables, but on that day, there were those that cleaned the dirty dishes off the tables and regardless of gender were called ‘busboy’.  

In the summer before college, I worked on a furniture delivery truck (a great motivator to get a college degree!!!).  And, all through college I worked summers at a school supply warehouse.  At college, I was a resident assistant my last two years.  When I graduated from college, I had no debt - unlike many college students. 

After college, I took my first teaching job - at $6,500 (which included extra money for being the assistant basketball coach and head baseball coach - since the previous math teacher had coached both of those things).  I paid $75 a month for rent.  I paid off the car I had bought (a used Plymouth Barracuda - I wish I had it today!!!) and saved money!!  

I went back to college and got my master’s degree - and actually came out ahead financially!!!  I was a graduate assistant in the math department and a dorm (oops - resident hall) director - which paid a small stipend plus free room and board.  Plus, I was still working in the summer.  

I had few expenses - and life was good!!!  But, I had fallen in love and a year after graduating from college with my master’s degree, we married and in touch with the American Dream - went into debt buying a house - and then cut my wife’s small income out as we had our children and she was a stay-home-mom.  

Back to economics.  When I have taught about economics and capital in classes, I remind students of what are generally the best-looking buildings in most communities - banks!!  Banks make money out of loaning money.  They use their capital to raise more capital.  

In economic terms, you use your money (capital) to buy into businesses, as investments, or even in buying homes - that you hope will appreciate and be of more value.

If you use your capital wisely, you can have a nice house, a new retirement, and a nice life.  Ben Franklin wrote, “A penny saved is a penny earned”!!!  Even back in that first job after college, I paid off my debts and saved money for graduate work.  

I am not an investment expert, but I have trusted financial experts (in my case as an educator, TIAA.  Yes, like almost all Americans I have made my ‘investment’ in Social Security, in South Dakota Teacher Retirement System, and at Quinnipiac University in TIAA (Teacher Insurance and Annuity Association). 

In terms of economics, I don’t have land (I ceded that to Connie), I have used my labor to earn my money and I have let my money build more money through investments.  

Tomorrow, management (or entrepreneurship!!!)  WOOO!!!

Hugs!!

Karen

(Then maybe some history views again)

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