TUESDAY, AUGUST 17, 2021 CENSUS ANALSIS - CONTINUED

 TUESDAY, AUGUST 17, 2021 CENSUS DATA - CONTINUED

This week I am looking at census data.

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Aside - As a retired Information Systems Professor, the census has interest for me.

The 1870 Census took 11 years to tabulate.  And, during the 1870s there were a large number of immigrants.  The Census Bureau dreaded the 1880 census - would it take 15 years to analyze?  

But, Hermann Hollerith had an idea.  Information could be coded onto some kind of paper and sorted appropriately counted.  That concept became the “punched card” (or, the Hollerith punched card).  When I learned to compute (COBOL), I did it on punched cards.  For all I know, there may be punched cards still in production someplace.  

That process made 1880 manageable and the data was available in a much shorter time.  Hollerith left the Census Bureau and with some friends started the Dayton Tabulating Company.  That company grew and had its name changed to “International Business Machines” - or IBM.  The term “Data Processing” had its heyday, but largely has been replaced by Information Analysis (or Information Systems).

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The “Population Replacement Rate” is the prediction of how many children a woman (or family) needs to keep the population numbers stable.  Analysts say the replacement rate should be about 2.1 children to keep the population about the same.

For example: “Japan's total fertility rate (the number of children born to each woman in her lifetime) has been below the replacement threshold of 2.1 since 1974 and reached a historic low of 1.26 in 2005.  It currently is 1.34 - still under the replacement rate.  That does have great implications for the island nation that is fairly homogenous in terms of ethnic makeup.  And with that low replacement rate, the average age and ratio of older people to younger people is growing.  

Let me go off on that last comment - using the United States.  Let’s say in the 1950s there were 36 (made up number) of employed workers supporting one senior/retired person.  Let’s say that in the 2020s, that has fallen to 17 (again made up) employed workers supporting one senior/retired person (such as paying into Social Security).  With more seniors NOT working, it takes more money and support from working people to keep the government retirement systems afloat.  The comment that the Social Security System is “broke” can be viewed as true.  (There is a lot more involved here)

In other countries like the United States, immigration has kept the population in the slight growth category. Japan really doesn’t have an immigration program. 

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But, South Korea is really hurting with a replacement rate of 0.84 - well under the 2.1 rate.  Japan and South Korean governments are encouraging couples to have more children with various incentives. 

Some European countries are also dealing with a declining population replacement rate.  Greece is at 1.3; Germany is at 1.54.  But, these countries are stable as there are many immigrants.  Some of the stability in Germany comes from about 3.3 million Turkish people moving to Germany.  And, if you will, some of the traditional aspects of German life are changing - with mosques replacing Christian churches, and ethnic diversity replacing German culture (aside - traditional Islam bans alcohol - so will Oktoberfest die out?) 

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In the United States, the population replacement rate is about 1.637.

“The statistical replacement rate is 2,100 births per 1,000 women. But in 2020, the U.S. total fertility rate fell to 1,637.5 births per 1,000 women. One year earlier, it was just over 1,700 births. (NPR data)

But, with immigration, our population is slowly growing.  Consider the following:

The White alone population has decreased by 8.6% since 2010.

The Multiracial population was measured at 9 million people in 2010 and is now 33.8 million people in 2020, a 276% increase.

The Hispanic or Latino population grew 23%, while the population that was not of Hispanic or Latino origin grew 4.3% since 2010.

New census population projections confirm the importance of racial minorities as the primary demographic engine of the nation’s future growth, countering an aging, slow-growing, and soon-to-be declining white population. 

The new statistics project that the nation will become “minority white” in 2045. During that year, whites will comprise 49.7 percent of the population in contrast to 24.6 percent for Hispanics, 13.1 percent for blacks, 7.9 percent for Asians, and 3.8 percent for multiracial populations.

I have read that in a few hundred years, intermarriage will make us more interracial and more uniform.  (That study also suggested that red-haired people may only rarely exist as red hair tends to be an ethnically related trait.)

Does this bother me?  If I am honest, sometimes yes.  The America (and world) I grew up in is changing.    But, on the other hand, I have to say “okay”.  Diversity is something I can live with.  

And, ultimately, I believe that LOVE WINS!!!

More tomorrow and Thursday!!!

Karen