FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2022 - COUNT THE COST - RUSSIA/UKRAINE WAR

 FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2022 - COUNT THE COST

On Fridays, I write about spiritual things.  Today, it will be both spiritual and practical (nice combination!!!)

Luke 14:18-33

“But don’t begin until you count the cost. Who would begin construction of a building without first calculating the cost to see if there is enough money to finish it?  Otherwise, you might complete only the foundation before running out of money, and then everyone would laugh at you.  They would say, ‘There’s the person who started that building and couldn’t afford to finish it!’

“Or what king would go to war against another king without first sitting down with his counselors to discuss whether his army of 10,000 could defeat the 20,000 soldiers marching against him? And if he can’t, he will send a delegation to discuss terms of peace while the enemy is still far away. So you cannot become my disciple without giving up everything you own.

*****

In particular, I’m looking at the last paragraph about going to war, and even more specifically, about the Russian/Ukraine war.  

I have a couple of pages of data - then a conclusion.

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From a news source we have this:

British intelligence said that “it will likely take years for Russia to rebuild” its much-vaunted 1st Guards Tank Army. The Kremlin retaliated in characteristic fashion by shelling civilian infrastructure and power supplies.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been one of great cost.  

From the New York Times:

“Six months after Russia invaded Ukraine, the human and financial tolls are incalculable. But the figures that have emerged paint a bleak picture.”

Day after day for 181 days, the grim ledger of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine grows longer with each missile strike, burst of gunfire, and report of atrocities.

• Ukrainian civilians have paid a heavy price: 5,587 are confirmed dead, and the true number is believed to be in the tens of thousands. The number of refugees has surpassed 6.6 million.

• Military losses have been heavy on both sides, with about 9,000 Ukrainians and as many as 25,000 Russians said to be killed.

• Ukraine has lost control of 20 percent of its territory to Russian forces and their proxies in recent years.

• The destruction has already cost Ukraine at least $113.5 billion, and it may need more than $200 billion to rebuild.

• Donor nations have pledged to give Ukraine more than $83 billion in total.

• Ukrainian agricultural production and other countries that depend on it have been hit hard. Even with grain ships on the move again, the world hunger crisis is dire.

On Monday, the United Nations reported that it had confirmed the deaths of 5,587 civilians, including 149 girls, 175 boys, and 38 children whose sex is unknown. At least 7,890 civilians were confirmed to be injured, it said.

But those are only the confirmed civilian casualties. The true numbers, U.N. officials concede, are without a doubt far higher.

 

The actual toll is probably tens of thousands of civilians. That is the estimate Ukrainian officials have arrived at after months of recovering bodies.

 

Russia and Ukraine have kept their military casualties a closely guarded secret, though Western analysts believe both have sustained heavy losses.

 

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the top commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, said Monday that about 9,000 Ukrainians had been killed at the front. Speaking at a conference for veterans, he did not say whether that included all the branches of Ukraine’s military; the number could not be independently verified. In comparison, in the eight-year conflict between Ukraine and Russia-backed forces, around 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians were killed.

Four months later, the British military estimated that 25,000 Russians had been killed and tens of thousands more wounded. And this month, Pentagon officials estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Russians had been killed or wounded; they put the number of deaths at 20,000. U.S. officials said their estimates were based on satellite imagery, communication intercepts, social media, and on-the-ground media reports.

 

More than 6.6 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, according to the United Nations’ latest estimate. Of those, more than 3.8 million people have registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe.

 

Within Ukraine, roughly seven million people have been displaced internally, U.N. officials estimate. About 13 million are stranded or unable to escape contested ground because of fighting, ruined bridges and roads, and a lack of resources.

Russian shelling and missile strikes across Ukraine have destroyed more than 130,000 buildings since February, according to research by the Kyiv School of Economics, drawing on information from Ukrainian government ministries.

Since February, 311 bridges have been damaged or destroyed; 188,000 private cars have been damaged, destroyed, or seized; and more than 15,400 miles of road damaged or destroyed.

The range of buildings that have been damaged, destroyed, or seized is vast, the researchers reported: at least 115,000 private houses and 15,000 apartments; 2,290 educational facilities, including 798 kindergartens; 1,991 shops and 27 shopping centers; 934 health care facilities and 715 cultural facilities; 511 administrative buildings, 28 oil depots and 18 civilian airports.

As of Monday, the Kyiv School of Economics estimated, that the damage to Ukraine’s economy from the destruction of buildings and infrastructure amounted to $113.5 billion. The researchers estimated the minimum money needed for recovery is almost $200 billion.

The Ukrainian government has estimated that it needs $5 billion a month to keep essential services and its battered economy running — a figure likely to increase in the fall and winter — and eventually a total of $750 billion for recovery.

The war will cost Ukraine’s farmers and agribusiness companies $23 billion in lost profits, destroyed equipment, and transportation costs, according to Ukrainian studies. Ukraine’s wheat exports, worth $5.1 billion last year, will fall by nearly half after this year’s harvest, the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast.

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Okay, a lot of data and a lot of reading.

Basically, the New York Times says it has COST A LOT to have war between Russia and Ukraine.  

And, not only that, but it has affected the entire world.  Russia’s natural gas and oil are big parts of the energy for the rest of Europe.  Germany in particular has been affected.  Ukraine has been a major exporter of grain and agricultural products - including fertilizer.  So crops around the world that get growing assistance from Ukrainian and Russian fertilizers will not get as much help (and what help they get will be at a steep price.

Human issues

When the war ends (if it ends), it will take years to rebuild schools, housing, shopping, churches, bridges, roads, and infrastructure.  And there will be fewer able-bodied people to do that rebuilding (aka -the majority of deaths in the military are of working age).

Families have been torn apart.  Many women and children have fled Ukraine for temporary asylum in Europe and even in the United States.  Yes, they are alive, but living in an area that speaks a different language and may not be as friendly to refugees taking over their jobs.  

And, after the war, do these refugees go back to Ukraine?  What if there is no place to go?  

The economic impact, human impact, and mental impact of war will continue for years to come.

My graphic is “War is not Healthy for Children and Other Living Things”. And, this war is proving that point!!!

LOVE WINS, HATE AND WAR DESTROY

Karen White, September 16, 2022, ©