THURSDAY, JANUARY 13, 2022 CHANGE IS INEVITABLE

THURSDAY, JANUARY 13, 2022 CHANGE IS INEVITABLE 

So, the autonomous tractor, autonomous cars, trucks, boats, cabs, trains, are here.

Robots build cars, deliver things, and are coming (and … are also here)

SO, what will they do when they come for you? (Whatever “they” is)

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Revolutions

I was a history double major (with mathematics) in college.  I remember a professor talking about change - like a balanced board. When the fulcrum is in the center things are balanced.  But as more weight gets put on one end, the balanced board tips a little, then more weight.  In politics, those in power work on maintaining power.  That might even be through technologies.  Phones and communications can be tapped, surveillance cameras can watch our movements, and artificial intelligence can fairly accurately predict our thoughts and actions.  

The concept says that eventually, the board gets so unbalanced something has to happen.  In the days of a slight tilt to the board, slight changes can be made - “evolution”; in the days where the board is very unbalanced - “revolution”.

Examples:

The Russian Revolution - the Tsars and nobles had such total control over the land and the people that eventually, the Russian Revolution overthrew the existing situation.

In Kazahkstan, a report (dated January 10, 2022) indicated 8,000 people have been “detained.  I’m not quite sure what “detained” means - jailed? Arrested? Kept and released? Will there be meaningful change?  At this point, maybe not, but the seeds of revolt have been scattered.

In Belarus, the riots have currently subsided (I sure wouldn’t want to riot in sub-freezing temperatures!!)

[Aside, I have visited both Kazahkstan and Belarus]

The Luddites fought against technology (and eventually lost - with police and government against them).

The French people rose up against the monarchy and the French revolution ensued.

The American colonies were taxed and rebelled against the British. 

The American south rebelled against the anti-slavery, anti-states-rights of the incoming Lincoln Presidency.

The South Africans fought against whites-only apartheid. 

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Change is inevitable.  It seems like as time progresses, the underdogs grow stronger.  Those in power attempt to retain power and can use force against their opponents, and as the oppressed get stronger.  Sometimes it gets crazy.  Those in power find ways to say in power, those opposed keep trying - and generally win - and sometimes in very violent ways (like the French and Russian Revolutions).

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So, can we fight autonomous vehicles?  Can we fight robotics?  Can we fight the new technological revolution that is on our doorsteps?  Maybe the real question is: Should we fight the technological revolution?  Should humans come out of their homes with their hands up and say “we surrender”?

I apologize, my crystal ball is not working very well, and I really can’t predict what is going to happen.  But, I anticipate in a few years autonomous vehicles will be the norm, farms, labor, production will be more robotic, and life will be different.

I also anticipate that major changes will happen to people’s lives as technologies change.  Will humans be reduced to hours of relaxation (or hours of boredom) without meaning in their lives? Will there be places where ‘humans only’ will exist? [Like the old British clubs for men].  

It will be radical, it will be revolutionary, but it will happen.  

On almost all fronts, autonomy, robots, and artificial intelligence will be cheaper in the long run.  Rhetorical question:  What is the largest expense in almost all businesses?  Labor - humans. Tractors will not need humans riding in them (so the farmers can do something else); trucks will not need humans driving them; robots that can cook, clean, and do many other things will work 24/7 FREE (after the initial expense).  

Where the 19th century saw the industrial revolution, and the twentieth century saw more with cars, planes, television, computing, internet, the twenty-first century will move even faster.  

Agriculture is on the brink of such a revolution (or evolution) - not only in autonomous tractors but in GMO - genetically modified organisms.  In terms of seeds, GMO seeds can be more resistant to disease, have a longer shelf life, better for the environment (as fewer chemicals are used), and can actually taste better. 

Mass-produced crops/food can sustain a growing world population.  But, what will this world population do for meaningful work? That remains to be seen.  

At times, I’m glad I’m 74 and can watch it happen; and at times, I worry about the future - what it might mean for my grandchildren and great-grandchildren.  I hope the technology causes good and not evil that we can stop wars and hatred.  But that probably won’t happen.  Companies will compete for better products and bigger profits; countries will also compete for a larger market share. 

But, change will happen!!!  Change is inevitable and like my ideas from last week, not changing will lead to decline.

LOVE WINS - and LOVE WILL WIN.

Karen White

January 13, 2022