Can Colleges Survive?
<Different Sources>
I am not aware of any college that is still
functioning on ground (that doesn’t mean there aren’t any, just that I’m not
aware of them). With the COVID-19 scare, and the close interaction with
students on a campus, my best guess is that a campus could have been infected
very quickly. Students in classes, labs, residence halls, cafeterias,
sporting events, parties (could there be colleges without parties?), and even
dating. One person carries the COVID-19 virus and sits behind another
student in class and coughs, maybe she coughs when in line at the cafeteria,
she is a roommate to three other students in a dorm suite, she is taking a
science class with a lab and coughs, and is dating a very popular guy in a
social fraternity. BOOM - the campus is affected by the germs - and with
the constant interaction, it spreads like wildfire.
International students are sent home - or are
also in isolation maybe with American friends or through their
embassies.
The campus survives (somehow). Some campus
support staff can be given leave (you don’t need resident hall directors and
resident hall assistants when the residence halls are closed).
Administrative aides might be furloughed. Some athletic staff (especially
trainers, athletic facility staff) can also be sent home.
Professors are working from home. My guess
is that many (if not most) professors can handle teaching online. The
responsibility shifts - instead of attending class in a classroom, the
professor may record lectures, post assignments and dealing with students
through various media forms (like Zoom) and plenty of emails.
One source (although a bit dated) - originally
2013 and updated in 2018 quotes Clayton Christensen from Harvard Business
School - who is well known in the field of “Disruptive Technology”.
From Forbes Management in 2018, we have this:
Harvard Business School Professor Clayton
Christensen consistently turns heads in higher education by predicting that 50%
of colleges and universities will close or go bankrupt in the next decade.
Christensen and I made a more measured prediction with more nuance in the New
York Times in 2013: “a host of struggling colleges and universities—the bottom
25 percent of every tier, we predict—will disappear or merge in the next 10 to
15 years.”
Whether it is 25% or 50%, the prediction is that
colleges (implying universities) will be closing.
A recent article in the New York Times says
this, “The pandemic has already cost universities millions of dollars. As they
consider the possibility of remote classes into the fall, they’re worried about
losing students, too.”
The article continues, “Already, colleges have
seen their endowments weakened, and worry that fund-raising efforts will
founder even as many families need more financial aid. They also expect to lose
international students, especially from Asia, because of travel restrictions
and concerns about studying abroad. Foreign students, usually paying full
tuition, represent a significant revenue source everywhere, from the Ivy League
to community colleges.
Putting one-and-one together and making
three: Christensen predicts many colleges will fail in the next decade,
the New York Times comments that this has cost colleges millions of dollars,
and that enrollment by international students may also dry up.
Throw the overwhelming college debt situation
for students - who may pay off their college debt with dwindling income for
many years may push some campuses to the wall.
With some colleges charging about $250,000 for a
four-year degree (and sometimes more) it isn’t a good time to consider
finishing a Ph.D. with the intention of being a professor. And, a second
verse to that chorus is that in some fields, Ph.D. holders are almost “a dime a
dozen’. (Excuse me for a judgment - what else would you do with a Ph.D.
in medieval languages?)
*****
Now colleges are also vital for many
communities. Around most campuses, you’ll find shopping, restaurants,
bars, and even recreation-oriented business. These businesses have shut
down with the quarantine and if a campus shuts down, it might be hard to
restart.
Politicians have debated college debt in the
past few years. Community colleges are touted as good places to start
your college studies - and, in most cases, you can stay home and save money.
And a more personal bias. There is a
statement that “college is the best four years of your life”. There is a
lot more to college than classes. Out of a week of 168 hours, most
students will be in classes twenty hours- or less. Like going into the
military, college is an experience for the traditional 18 to 22-year-old students.
You get to live on your own, but in a controlled environment. If you are
in a dorm, you get socialization skills that you probably wouldn’t get if you
lived at home. You can join clubs and organizations and learn
time-management and administration skills. You may also learn how to deal
with free-time and leisure.
Some join the military, many go to
college – it is a ‘growing up’ process to live on your own in a controlled environment.
*****
In summary. While the future is unknown,
it will truly be a ‘brave new world’ for many of us - and especially for
college students. We will have to see if Christensen’s prediction does
occur!!
Hugs!!
Karen
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